Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 87% No | Open |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Polymarket | 84% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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3 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- pblowesq · 6 months ago
mythos
- Tinted-Outfielder · 7 months ago
How did u do it?
- JarheadLXXI · 8 months ago
woah! my first time ever getting a market created :D
As of Sep 29, 09:32 PM UTC