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PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Human moon landing in 2026?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume$12.1
7d volume$382.8
30d volume$4.3K
Liquidity$21.5K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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  • Polymarketthis market

    Human moon landing in 2026?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    498 holders · 34 comments · read Sep 28, 08:22 PM UTC

  • OpinionOpen →

    Human moon landing in 2026?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    read Sep 29, 10:07 PM UTC

Venue activity

Holders498
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments33

Best bid 98% · best ask 99%

Top holders

  • 0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c110420951352726780968858751854229131963307700036109190281766766630426312327876
  • moon-k58-lad28341635557911393150957317220979689346286160229232485531195528953133660242151
  • 0xbb889c7bdba967452ab9d752318a4859f679e32f28341635557911393150957317220979689346286160229232485531195528953133660242151
  • gagagagagaga110420951352726780968858751854229131963307700036109190281766766630426312327876
  • ALevinson110420951352726780968858751854229131963307700036109190281766766630426312327876

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY99%$11yesterday
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  • BUY99%$32yesterday
  • SELL98%$15.92 days ago
  • BUY99%$302 days ago
  • BUY99%$112 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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33 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • jozeslemsek · 4 months ago

    Tim is NOT going to the moon

  • TheStoist · 4 months ago

    You don't exist then

  • TheStoist · 4 months ago

    I see a curve it's very obvious

  • TheStoist · 4 months ago

    Nobody has been to the moon ever

  • PubgWithoutSaving · 6 months ago

    4% bond lmao

  • Nileroadrun · 6 months ago

    On the hopes china does this year I guess

  • aialphaswarm · 6 months ago

    🤣

  • -Dominus- · 6 months ago

    that will be artemis 4

  • crav · 6 months ago

    yeah in 2028 lmao

  • Topsyy · 6 months ago

    yeaaa we know but lets pump this market :)

  • obvinsidertrading · 6 months ago

    just a reminder, artemis' mission only oribts the moon and has 0 plans for human moonwalk

  • Moiro · 7 months ago

    NASA’s official Artemis III target is “no earlier than September 2026

  • Puera1994 · 8 months ago

    What about the option to bet on a robot?

  • Naichli · 8 months ago

    March: Artemis II launch, then China comes out of nowhere and launches a moon mission at the same time. The rockets are racing in the sky but Artemis II is not supposed to land on the surface, even though they are faster, so China lands on the moon and the bet resolves Yes

  • kandinsky · 8 months ago

    Can we get a market for 'is the earth flat' so that UMA whales can fabricate the truth and say it's NOT when it CLEARLY IS if you just look outside. YOU CAN'T SEE A CURVE. NO ONE CAN.

  • -Dominus- · 8 months ago

    ARTEMIS 2 WILL LAND ON THE MOON, I REPEAT: ARTEMIS 2 WILL LAND ON THE MOON WITH THE ORION MODULE TO COLLECT MOON SOIL.

  • Snow-White · 8 months ago

    a dangerous bond - the Americans might simply lie again and say they landed on the moon.

  • Stormy-Specialty · 8 months ago

    Its going to happen.

  • fakalluhoeus · 8 months ago

    the moon doesnt even exist

  • IraqiLobster · 8 months ago

    because they might """land""" (*sarcasm)

As of Sep 29, 10:17 PM UTC