Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $10,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Sourcehttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $8,000 on the final trading day of December 2026? | Polymarket | 50% Yes | Open |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,000 on the final trading day of December 2026? | Polymarket | 52% No | Open |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of December 2026? | Polymarket | 52% No | Open |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,500 on the final trading day of December 2026? | Polymarket | 51% No | Open |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of December 2026? | Polymarket | 52% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 11:58 AM UTC