Will Justin Bieber release an album in 2026?

Yes52%
No48%

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24h volume$5
7d volume$337.1
30d volume$1.1K
Liquidity$135.7
Spread20%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

The same question elsewhere

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  • KalshiOpen →

    Who will release a new album in 2026?: Will Justin Bieber release a new album in 2026?

    If Justin Bieber releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A “new album”, must be an original composition first released during 2026, including new singles, unreleased tracks, or collaborations featuring new material. It may take the form of an LP or EP. Re-recordings (unless in a new language), remasters, radio edits, clean or explicit releases of the same underlying track(s), remixes, live versions, acoustic versions, instrumentals, demos, alternative takes, “artist version”-style releases, or any other full reproduction of a song already available on Spotify before 2026 does NOT meet the Payout Criterion. Additionally, uploading albums that have not previously been available on Spotify but have been widely publicly available before time period does NOT meet the Payout Criterion for a “new album”

    read Sep 29, 10:40 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Justin Bieber release an album in 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

    35 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 25, 06:40 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

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Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?Polymarket89% NoOpen
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Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?Polymarket57% NoOpen
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Will Lil Uzi Vert release an album in 2026? Polymarket60% YesOpen
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Venue activity

Holders35
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 16% · best ask 64%

Top holders

  • PhilHawesLover14100036728132326881690646747069794508713575641071076646380195721813783969314
  • Gaditima14100036728132326881690646747069794508713575641071076646380195721813783969314
  • moon-k58-lad79685508841920160898277790635778123593185128691414973617436276449820361315622
  • gummy-usb14100036728132326881690646747069794508713575641071076646380195721813783969314
  • predictiondiablo79685508841920160898277790635778123593185128691414973617436276449820361315622

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL57%$9.25 days ago
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  • SELL68%$13.65 days ago
  • SELL68%$8.95 days ago
  • SELL68%$55.85 days ago
  • BUY33%$6.65 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 03:03 AM UTC