Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

No88%
Yes13%

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24h volume$70
7d volume$3.3K
30d volume$9.6K
Liquidity$17K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria do not differ in any material way; Polymarket lists a resolution time of January 1, 2027, while PredictFun does not specify one.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

    275 holders · 22 comments · read Sep 28, 08:55 AM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

    read Sep 29, 09:19 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Polymarket74% NoOpen
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Polymarket60% YesOpen

Venue activity

Holders275
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments21

Best bid 12% · best ask 13%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296660930805867398535725364733789421433699213748040127821706526083533833470897853
  • emrico4655209727295513535859117642120184432334179761721646415109648555849060899062
  • namarian9994655209727295513535859117642120184432334179761721646415109648555849060899062
  • gambling2274655209727295513535859117642120184432334179761721646415109648555849060899062
  • luzai4655209727295513535859117642120184432334179761721646415109648555849060899062

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL13%$20.42 days ago
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  • BUY87%$12 days ago
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  • BUY88%$12 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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21 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • GenaTheBondKilIer · 2 months ago

    tst

  • quickwhale1589 · 2 months ago

    my copy trades keep hitting

  • Zesty-Nucleotide · 2 months ago

    perps: 00jbvof3

  • HeyVaro · 4 months ago

    performance

  • HeyVaro · 4 months ago

    Sp500 ..

  • Great-Calm · 5 months ago

    SnP will be up btc will be going down till dec and gold has reached its high

  • Poppy6 · 5 months ago

    Individual stock differentiation intensifies, and the market is shifting from general ups and downs to structural gains.

  • waive · 6 months ago

    je suis bitcoin

  • Reasonable-Desire · 7 months ago

    Concur

  • Amaranthay · 7 months ago

    gold

  • Pmw-Julio · 7 months ago

    Ouro ou Bitcoin ??

  • bndrn · 7 months ago

    wtf

  • Absolute.Degenerate · 8 months ago

    yes but almost better hodling bitcoin boring bet too

  • Absolute.Degenerate · 8 months ago

    yes but boring. better hold bitcoin

  • azmor · 8 months ago

    easy money

  • mooresharon · 9 months ago

    Bitcoin

  • wsmitpwtind · 9 months ago

    why not buy sp500 instead

  • Constant-Inscription · 9 months ago

    why did this trade lost in the resolution source before the trade close it was down how come yours said lost wtf your current price is not matching that of the The resolution source

  • Obamnna · 9 months ago

    Lol you can make 140% here and bitcoin can win by just going down less

  • TheGoldenShotg4nSK · 9 months ago

    Instead of betting on BTC just buy BTC. That way you will be more likely to make profit and even if SP500 or gold outperforms BTC you will still have profit from BTC gaining value.

As of Sep 29, 10:17 PM UTC