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PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$31.8K
Spread1%
ResolvesFeb 1, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. The venues differ only in listed resolution timing: Opinion lists January 1, 2027, while Polymarket lists February 1, 2027; both criteria permit waiting through January 31, 2027 for source updates and use the same USGS-based process.
  • OpinionOpen →

    10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

    read Sep 30, 01:40 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

    2.4K holders · 28 comments · read Sep 27, 09:49 AM UTC

Venue activity

Holders2.4K
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments20

Top holders

  • 0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c104132822313945994667694798237261745912174886711958619988608099629798778147916
  • vk714657620875674906884624195454632482429719111899155632370720506398333067833005
  • 58998514657620875674906884624195454632482429719111899155632370720506398333067833005
  • 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04104132822313945994667694798237261745912174886711958619988608099629798778147916
  • BeN104132822313945994667694798237261745912174886711958619988608099629798778147916

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL1%$1.55 days ago
  • BUY1%$26 days ago
  • BUY1%$2.87 days ago
  • SELL1%$0.111 days ago
  • BUY2%$0.111 days ago
  • BUY1%$1011 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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20 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • KELBI · 3 months ago

    lol more like not even IG bind so this yield is stupid

  • Master-bettor · 5 months ago

    AAA bond

  • Fatal-Glory · 7 months ago

    Can somebody look up that bet that says Tintin is actually Jesus Christ before 2027? I think it was at about 14%.

  • Starlux-35K · 7 months ago

    This is the real Jesus returns market.

  • goBig-or-goHome · 8 months ago

    i mean if it happens i will have bigger problems to worry about

  • acc-5 · 8 months ago

    If there is a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, the earth will be so wrecked that you won’t even be able to claim your gains

  • Colorguesser · 9 months ago

    Magnitude 10 are technically not possible. They would yield breakup of the planet. So it this bet just to store money?

  • wsmitpwtind · 9 months ago

    will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist is better

  • Snow-White · 9 months ago

    DUMFUQ GOOPfan risking a fortune to earn a a thousand dollars, what a STUPID INNUMERATE this dumbass GOOPfan is! No wonder he I DOWN TENS of THOUSANDS on THIS WEEK ALREADY! HA HA HA, GOOPfan is the RETARD of SEVERSK!

  • mmmbop · 9 months ago

    What does Zilivanili know??

  • i2dt · 10 months ago

    *so many yes shares

  • ibwqs · 10 months ago

    same I was actually worried for a second lol

  • i2dt · 10 months ago

    Zilivanili just bought so many no shares I actually had to double check an earth ending quake didn’t just occur

  • Edible-Glider · 10 months ago

    Not even a 0.1% chance... caveat is you have to wait almost 400 days to get your money

  • dumbestdollars · 10 months ago

    lol

  • Cronim · 10 months ago

    But yeah, probably not. Scientists say the physics just don't allow a tectonic quake that big. We're maxed out around a high 9. Maybe if an asteroid hits, but that's a whole other disaster movie.

  • i2dt · 10 months ago

    10.0 is basically not possible with the faults that exist, maybe if a giant meteor hit us.

  • heresjimmy · 10 months ago

    Lizzo is going on tour in March 2026

  • tomatosauce2 · 10 months ago

    strongest ever earthquake was 9.5 in 1960

  • ibwqs · 10 months ago

    I'm scared JLLEE91 is gonna cause an earthquake himself

As of Sep 30, 01:57 PM UTC