PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

No98%

Yes2%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:58 PM UTC

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24h volume$319

7d volume$319

30d volume$2.4K

Liquidity$15.5K

Spread0%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published criteria differ in no material way; Polymarket specifies a nominal resolve-by timestamp, while PredictFun has no separate resolvesAt field, but its criteria specify the same December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET deadline.

Polymarketthis market
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
137 holders · 13 comments · read Sep 22, 05:03 AM UTC
PredictFunOpen →
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
read Sep 29, 07:41 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	93% No	$187	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	61% No	$43.6	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	84% Yes	$40	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	$3	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders137

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments6

Best bid 2% · best ask 2%

Top holders

TheLightFire17682183447223123479988952873452690236608652508609100470364905844731048770925
0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a723075036871051292036633100296923195842080149789926568755122365949307390731298
ImJustKen23075036871051292036633100296923195842080149789926568755122365949307390731298
whumpa17682183447223123479988952873452690236608652508609100470364905844731048770925
DEGENKHAN23075036871051292036633100296923195842080149789926568755122365949307390731298

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL98%$611 days ago
BUY98%$611 days ago
BUY98%$199.111 days ago
SELL2%$112 days ago
SELL2%$2.812 days ago
BUY98%$83.112 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

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6 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

Jeffrey-Einstein · 3 months ago
why is there no 4%
whumpa · 3 months ago
create for 2028
whumpa · 6 months ago
I'm cooked
SatoshiBladerunner · 9 months ago
Watching a massive 500k sell-wall get chipped away. The buyers here have serious capital.
chgltk · 10 months ago
What the hell is over here 10% of free money?
Aldrach · 10 months ago
It'll be a slow walk down from where we are now. They want to hit the sweet spot, not crash anything. Expect a lot of little 0.25% cuts over the next two years.

As of Sep 29, 10:23 PM UTC