PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?

No93%

Yes7%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:49 PM UTC

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24h volume$187

7d volume$297.5

30d volume$680.2

Liquidity$509.6

Spread9%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published criteria differ in no material way; Polymarket's displayed resolvesAt timestamp does not change the explicitly stated 12:59 PM ET resolution deadline.

PredictFunOpen →
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
read Sep 29, 07:39 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
91 holders · 13 comments · read Sep 29, 09:06 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	$319	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	61% No	$43.6	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Polymarket	84% Yes	$40	—	—	Open
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	$3	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 hours ago

Holders91

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments6

Best bid 3% · best ask 11%

Top holders

puravida42986685997323159916238155847512989934163499175392639021077012166434925462231
hgamezoon42986685997323159916238155847512989934163499175392639021077012166434925462231
Obiviouslynotaninsider13718765479856259420691746716226287833059571527959684553039159664601795005525
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.13718765479856259420691746716226287833059571527959684553039159664601795005525
hithitfar42986685997323159916238155847512989934163499175392639021077012166434925462231

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Recent trades

BUY90%$4.511 hours ago
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BUY11%$0.614 hours ago
BUY9%$0.94 days ago
BUY6%$35 days ago
SELL95%$23.85 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

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6 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

Jeffrey-Einstein · 3 months ago
why is there no 4%
whumpa · 3 months ago
create for 2028
whumpa · 6 months ago
I'm cooked
SatoshiBladerunner · 9 months ago
Watching a massive 500k sell-wall get chipped away. The buyers here have serious capital.
chgltk · 10 months ago
What the hell is over here 10% of free money?
Aldrach · 10 months ago
It'll be a slow walk down from where we are now. They want to hit the sweet spot, not crash anything. Expect a lot of little 0.25% cuts over the next two years.

As of Sep 29, 11:26 PM UTC