PolymarketOpen

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No97%
Yes3%

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24h volume$2.6K
7d volume$95.8K
30d volume$395.8K
Liquidity$157K
Spread0%
ResolvesOct 27, 2026in 28 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket70% NoOpen
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket58% NoOpen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket86% NoOpen
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders669
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments733

Best bid 2% · best ask 3%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296613887896800265966487014179943559375403384011039339488276489274832989862323735
  • scottilicious13887896800265966487014179943559375403384011039339488276489274832989862323735
  • AnonDWM105057524965982907913786325697426001538810836564004836999292309706852745390829
  • nicolemayer105057524965982907913786325697426001538810836564004836999292309706852745390829
  • pilimili105057524965982907913786325697426001538810836564004836999292309706852745390829

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Discussion on Predxy

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733 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Ph723 · 20 hours ago

    If no one is sworn, So it will be resolved to who sworn after the next elections. I think it's pretty clear isn't it?

  • polmar001 · yesterday

    I still don't understand the rule , can somebody tell me?

  • polmar001 · yesterday

    "This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election." if no one is sworn? No for all???

  • polmar001 · yesterday

    As much as I hate Bibi, he will be appointed anyway. Gadi will fail like previous opposition

  • Fond-Killing · 2 days ago

    As much as I love Bibi for obliterating Islamist terrorists, I feel like Israel needs a new leader. Eisenkot with decades of military experience is a pretty good successor.

  • WhaleWatch-95858 · 2 days ago

    wan123 is up 3.01% on their $194,775.10 bet on Benjamin Netanyahu with outcome No. Current value: $200,642.56. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.

  • HolyMoses7 · 2 days ago

    This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

  • Ariel39939 · 2 days ago

    No one is saying they don't favour Bibi on channel 14 and in polls , its just about how ridiculous the polls on the left looked when they predict 57 and in reality it's 64, now it's even worse, it's 52 in all channel except 14 where they predict 64, someone is lying and learning from the past it's most likely the left

  • Shiny-Mark · 2 days ago

    I looked at the polls for the previous election and back then Channel 14 shown a tiny bit higher % for Bibi, almost indistinguishable from other pollsters. Since then... you can either believe that they went complete authoritarian propaganda mode or every other pollster with different funding sources and political alignments joined a very complicated conspiracy circle. In my experience, the answer is always someone with clear authoritarian tendencies shamelessly lying rather than a 1000 different interests joining in a very complicated conspiracy.

  • Shiny-Mark · 2 days ago

    Doesn't Netanyahu continue to be prime minister until a new government is formed?

  • Afraid-Indication · 2 days ago

    יש בחירות חדשות 👍

  • ProbXHunter · 2 days ago

    מה קורה אם אף אחד לא מקים ממשלה ? אין אופציה אחר

  • Ariel39939 · 2 days ago

    I don't have I legit would

  • OGRomes · 2 days ago

    As you said it was only close after Meretz got 0 instead of 5 as he predicted which means it wasn't accurate at all. Also if the bet here is so inaccurate why don't you put your money where your mouth is?

  • Ariel39939 · 3 days ago

    How hard is it to Google it? It was 2nd place after some random poll which just happened to guess it all the others were far from the overall results, no one cares about the exact parties numbers , it's the coalition/opposition numbers that matter , meretz was off by 3k votes no one could have predicted that

  • OGRomes · 3 days ago

    Fiber poll was not accurate at all he predicted Meretz to have 5 mandates and likus to have 5 more mandates

  • Ariel39939 · 3 days ago

    I'm here to tell you that everyone are going to sell the gadi yes one day before elections, the polls shows neck to neck ATM on the left and on the right wing polls which were most accurate last time they favor Bibi, how is this 52 to 30% is beyond casual bets

  • polmar001 · 3 days ago

    Gadi won't be able to build a government

  • WhaleWatch-72421 · 4 days ago

    wan123 holds $197,836.37 on Benjamin Netanyahu outcome No. Unrealized profit: $3,061.27. They turned $194,775.10 into over $197,836.37.

  • baggedandtagged · 4 days ago

    messy market, polybro insights sees it differently from the crowd

As of Sep 29, 10:27 PM UTC