Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 72% No | Open |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 73% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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14 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Muizademola · 5 days ago
That is good bro
- ocpna · 7 days ago
groceeries cost $1000 in alaska bro
- hdtomo · 10 days ago
Oof
- Norco66 · last month
Check todays primary results 😂😂
- ChinMusic · 3 months ago
No way Peltola wins this. Easy money.
- Well-Documented-Soup · 5 months ago
Darden is Going to win
- hdtomo · 6 months ago
bingo
- i2dt · 7 months ago
I bet next polling shows Peltola up 5+
- HDTomo-229 · 7 months ago
Seems to echo a market that knows Mary Peltola has S tier appeal but isn't willing to commit until polling comes out, which has been starved since Peltola first went for the nomination. It echoes Hannah Spencer over here in the UK being priced equal to Reform UK before resulting in a stonking majority, largely due to fog of war.
- JustTheFacts · 9 months ago
New - Senate poll - Alaska 🔵 Peltola 48% 🔴 Sullivan (Inc) 46% Alaska survey #B - RV - 1/11
- JustTheFacts · 9 months ago
Flip
- myrinsk · 9 months ago
peltola sweep
- guluh · 9 months ago
gg bj cu
- Afris · 9 months ago
She could become Queen of Alaska if she really tried in this climate
As of Sep 29, 08:27 PM UTC