Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

No63%
Yes38%

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24h volume$14.7K
7d volume$21.5K
30d volume$242K
Liquidity$140.5K
Spread1%
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Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    243 holders · 19 comments · read Sep 29, 08:32 PM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    read Sep 29, 07:20 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Polymarket62% YesOpen

Venue activity

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Comments19

Best bid 63% · best ask 64%

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Discussion on Predxy

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19 comments

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  • Fujii · 2 hours ago

    im sorry dude but you are a special kinda individuel and should not gamble cus holy fk you are brainrotted by MAGA all your bets are so weird and clear that you have no understanding of the real world outside Fox news and what your frontpage shows you on twitter.... go outside man

  • Giorgio2 · 12 hours ago

    ok it's Ohio... But look at the polls

  • JustTheFacts · 17 hours ago

    This should not be that close

  • 456ythgbvcadscvb · 4 days ago

    fell for it again award

  • bernardbulletin · 11 days ago

    unlike in Michigan, Maine, and Texas, it's hard to see the bull case for Republicans in Ohio. if this race was a tossup a year ago, it has probably drifted into the D column since then.

  • AnEggplant · 12 days ago

    LMAO even Trashfalgar has Brown ahead

  • Anthonyjb1 · 22 days ago

    How did they change the rule? Just curious

  • kimjongun123 · 2 months ago

    It's always the party not the candidate. He can't drop out and be replaced anyway, the deadline passed on Wednesday in Ohio. And why would he?

  • TireLatest · 2 months ago

    If Sherrod Brown drops out, how does his contract resolve?

  • TireLatest · 2 months ago

    Stop changing the rules in the markets.

  • FuckTrump · 2 months ago

    Imagine comparing Sherrod Brown to communism. You have dog food for brains.

  • Snarfsnarfsnarf · 2 months ago

    Communism vs Capitalism Ohio decides in this death match

  • NoDikTaters1600 · 6 months ago

    Moreno is a scumbag

  • AHN-667 · 6 months ago

    I think Husted will win by 3% , because he is much stronger than Moreno.

  • HDTomo-229 · 7 months ago

    The flip has finally happened - I expect this to expand to 60/40, at which point Republican bulls physically won't let it go any further

  • HDTomo-229 · 7 months ago

    2nd poll in a day is crazy Ohio is now rated tilt Democratic in a time when the Dems are underrepresented in polls still This is very underpriced, is it pricing a 52% chance Vivek cures cancer?

  • HDTomo-229 · 7 months ago

    Finally... polls!!!!

  • st.pablo · 7 months ago

    groyper war 3 is coming to ohio and its going to be a nuclear holocaust for the GOP

  • yukonboi · 10 months ago

    gib liquidity

As of Sep 29, 09:20 PM UTC