Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
595 holders · 15 comments · read Sep 24, 11:06 AM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
read Sep 29, 07:25 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 64% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 5 days agoBest bid 38% · best ask 39%
Top holders
- lomneivan79825167762459488478206414509755176562349257846652439268369145558426777722770
- anoin12379825167762459488478206414509755176562349257846652439268369145558426777722770
- AngryRhino83018072688154066292491996133599479395547801317505487833443670253228061205312
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296679825167762459488478206414509755176562349257846652439268369145558426777722770
- lastminwin83018072688154066292491996133599479395547801317505487833443670253228061205312
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY62%$189.86 days ago
- BUY62%$1.96 days ago
- BUY62%$3.16 days ago
- BUY39%$26 days ago
- BUY39%$1.16 days ago
- BUY39%$26 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
15 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- bernardbulletin · 11 days ago
unlike in Michigan, Maine, and Texas, it's hard to see the bull case for Republicans in Ohio. if this race was a tossup a year ago, it has probably drifted into the D column since then.
- AnEggplant · 12 days ago
LMAO even Trashfalgar has Brown ahead
- Anthonyjb1 · 22 days ago
How did they change the rule? Just curious
- kimjongun123 · 2 months ago
It's always the party not the candidate. He can't drop out and be replaced anyway, the deadline passed on Wednesday in Ohio. And why would he?
- TireLatest · 2 months ago
If Sherrod Brown drops out, how does his contract resolve?
- TireLatest · 2 months ago
Stop changing the rules in the markets.
- FuckTrump · 2 months ago
Imagine comparing Sherrod Brown to communism. You have dog food for brains.
- Snarfsnarfsnarf · 2 months ago
Communism vs Capitalism Ohio decides in this death match
- NoDikTaters1600 · 6 months ago
Moreno is a scumbag
- AHN-667 · 6 months ago
I think Husted will win by 3% , because he is much stronger than Moreno.
- HDTomo-229 · 7 months ago
The flip has finally happened - I expect this to expand to 60/40, at which point Republican bulls physically won't let it go any further
- HDTomo-229 · 7 months ago
2nd poll in a day is crazy Ohio is now rated tilt Democratic in a time when the Dems are underrepresented in polls still This is very underpriced, is it pricing a 52% chance Vivek cures cancer?
- HDTomo-229 · 7 months ago
Finally... polls!!!!
- st.pablo · 7 months ago
groyper war 3 is coming to ohio and its going to be a nuclear holocaust for the GOP
- yukonboi · 10 months ago
gib liquidity
As of Sep 29, 08:29 PM UTC