Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

No94%
Yes6%

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24h volume$3.1K
7d volume$54.2K
30d volume$87.3K
Liquidity$99.9K
Spread1%
ResolvesNov 4, 2026in 10 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies AP, Fox News, and NBC calls or official certification, while Pascal publishes no resolution criteria; no material question difference is apparent.
  • Michigan Governor Winner: Republicans

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 24, 04:48 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    197 holders · 4 comments · read Oct 24, 04:51 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Polymarket94% YesOpen
Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders197
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments4

Best bid 93% · best ask 95%

Top holders

  • AnonymousUsername3091929947863726371877226324959784580013579280794631063604653957812689085396
  • SAPolitcsSeer113314550423744773607951568238874281430587441567297387737553364413695224215541
  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966113314550423744773607951568238874281430587441567297387737553364413695224215541
  • cigarettes3091929947863726371877226324959784580013579280794631063604653957812689085396
  • aviato113314550423744773607951568238874281430587441567297387737553364413695224215541

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Discussion on Predxy

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4 comments

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  • .egalvyn · 3 months ago

    where is drop guys?

  • guy-who-knows · 6 months ago

    independent is a choice now.

  • Concrete-Pearl · 11 months ago

    I heard he's running as an independent.

  • TurtleSquadBoss · last year

    Mike Duggan?

As of Oct 24, 06:19 PM UTC