Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Yes94%
No6%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$1.3K
7d volume$23K
30d volume$118.3K
Liquidity$59.9K
Spread1%
ResolvesNov 4, 2026in 10 days

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 15Sep 28Oct 12Oct 25Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies resolution via AP, Fox News, and NBC calls or official certification; Pascal provides no additional criteria and references the Polymarket market. The listed settlement times differ by one minute, which is immaterial.
  • Michigan Governor Winner: Democrats

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 25, 07:25 AM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    185 holders · 4 comments · read Oct 19, 05:30 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders185
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments4

Best bid 6% · best ask 7%

Top holders

  • BuddhaYTorrance63517706574758177502492185078056756527324898714284142778693046697324148388357
  • SAPolitcsSeer63517706574758177502492185078056756527324898714284142778693046697324148388357
  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296624313213949676763118562588141459255175279390673486982872182407528149814471441
  • AnonymousUsername24313213949676763118562588141459255175279390673486982872182407528149814471441
  • ImJustKen24313213949676763118562588141459255175279390673486982872182407528149814471441

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL93%$446 days ago
  • BUY6%$56 days ago
  • BUY7%$26 days ago
  • BUY93%$196 days ago
  • BUY93%$336 days ago
  • BUY93%$16 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

4 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • .egalvyn · 3 months ago

    where is drop guys?

  • guy-who-knows · 6 months ago

    independent is a choice now.

  • Concrete-Pearl · 11 months ago

    I heard he's running as an independent.

  • TurtleSquadBoss · last year

    Mike Duggan?

As of Oct 25, 07:25 AM UTC