Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
8%Yes
2 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 1 of 2 venues
24h volume$1.5K
Total volume$44.3K
Markets22 venues, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months
First seenSep 2, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
If you’re right
What a stake pays at each venue, before fees$
| Venue | Price | Shares | Pays | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Best payout | 8.9¢ | 1,124 | $1,124 | +$1,024 11.2× |
 | 10¢ | 1,000 | $1,000 | +$900 10× |
Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.
Where this question trades
2 venuesComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?92% No$1.5K 24h volumeResolution rulesSet your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
- Tesla Optimus released this year?92% No$0 24h volumeResolution rulesSet your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
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As of Oct 24, 01:53 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.