US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

3%Yes
2 ptsover 24h
24h volume$1K
Total volume$2K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesNov 1, 2026in 7 days
First seenSep 30, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

Open the market

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30Oct 6Oct 12Oct 18Oct 24Up 20 points on Oct 11Down 17 points on Oct 12Down 11 points on Oct 15
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket3.9¢2,564$2,564+$2,464 25.6×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

More in World

View category
  1. 1NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
    2%Yes1 pts
  2. 2US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
    82%Yes6 pts
  3. 3NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
    19%Yes29 pts
  4. 4US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
    89%Yes8 pts
  5. 5Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
    6%Yes0 pts

As of Oct 24, 09:29 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.