SettledAI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?

Result

Resolved No on Oct 22, 2026. Markets gave it 2% the day before.

This question has settled. The price shown is final, and the change is the resolution, not a move.

0%Yes
0 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 1 of 2 venues
24h volume$3.1K
Total volume$42.6K
Markets22 venues, 1 priced
ResolvesOct 22, 20263 days ago
First seenOct 14, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 14Oct 16Oct 18Oct 20Oct 22Down 17 points on Oct 15Down 11 points on Oct 16Down 32 points on Oct 19Down 12 points on Oct 20Down 8 points on Oct 21
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
  1. 1Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: November 30, 2026
    71%Yes11 pts
  2. 2Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: December 31, 2026
    85%Yes1 pts
  3. 3Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026: Anthropic
    89%Yes4 pts
  4. 4Will Anthropic list by 1 January 2027 00:00 UTC with a first-day market cap above $2.5T?
    7%Yes0 pts
  5. 5Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: June 30, 2027
    92%Yes0 pts

As of Oct 24, 10:40 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.