KalshiOpen

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.81% or above

4.81% or above99%

No1%

Price checked at Oct 24, 08:22 PM UTC

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24h volume$2.3K

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread3%

ResolvesOct 26, 2026in 2 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 26, 2026, or one week following Oct 26, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.83% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.83% or above	$10.5K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.85% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.85% or above	$1.7K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.98% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.99% or above	Kalshi	53% 4.99% or above	$1.2K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.89% or above	Kalshi	98% 4.89% or above	$650	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.90% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.91% or above	Kalshi	95% 4.91% or above	$420	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.93% or above	Kalshi	92% 4.93% or above	$350	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 26, 2026? 5.07% or above	Kalshi	86% No	$317	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.95% or above	Kalshi	85% 4.95% or above	$310	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 26, 2026? 5.05% or above	Kalshi	80% No	$273	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 26, 2026? 5.03% or above	Kalshi	62% No	$268	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Oct 26, 2026? 5.09% or above	Kalshi	93% No	$255	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.96% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.97% or above	Kalshi	76% 4.97% or above	$250	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.87% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.87% or above	$245	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Oct 26, 2026? 5.01% or above	Kalshi	56% No	$125	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 24, 08:27 PM UTC