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KalshiOpen

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.67% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.68% or above

4.68% or above51%
No49%

Price checked at

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread20%
ResolvesOct 30, 2026in 6 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23, 06:12 AMOct 23, 07:08 PMOct 24, 08:04 AMOct 24, 09:00 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.67% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.57% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.58% or aboveKalshi83% 4.58% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.6% or aboveKalshi82% 4.6% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.83% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.84% or aboveKalshi88% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.81% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.82% or aboveKalshi65% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.91% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.92% or aboveKalshi93% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.55% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.56% or aboveKalshi89% 4.56% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Oct 30, 2026? 5% or aboveKalshi93% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.98% or aboveKalshi92% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.63% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.64% or aboveKalshi60% 4.64% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.94% or aboveKalshi89% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.61% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.62% or aboveKalshi76% 4.62% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.88% or aboveKalshi68% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Oct 30, 2026? 5.02% or aboveKalshi95% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.96% or aboveKalshi93% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 30, 2026? 5.04% or aboveKalshi95% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.86% or aboveKalshi78% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.9% or aboveKalshi80% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.7% or aboveKalshi56% 4.7% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.8% or aboveKalshi66% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.77% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.78% or aboveKalshi63% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.75% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.76% or aboveKalshi90% 4.76% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.65% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.66% or aboveKalshi53% 4.66% or aboveOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.71% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.72% or aboveKalshi55% NoOpen
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?: Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.73% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.74% or aboveKalshi57% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders—
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
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As of Oct 24, 09:12 PM UTC