KalshiResolved

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.91% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.92% or above

4.92% or above99%

No1%

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24h volume$305

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread—

ResolvesOct 23, 202621 hours ago

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 23, 2026, or one week following Oct 23, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Oct 23, 2026? 5% or above	Kalshi	51% No	$1.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.02% or above	Kalshi	98% No	$1.4K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.98% or above	Kalshi	91% 4.98% or above	$843	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.04% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$523	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.96% or above	Kalshi	91% 4.96% or above	$509	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.08% or above	Kalshi	93% No	$400	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.94% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.94% or above	$321	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.06% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$212	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.9% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.9% or above	$120	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.83% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.84% or above	Kalshi	98% 4.84% or above	$20	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.86% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.86% or above	$20	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.24% or above	Kalshi	94% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.18% or above	Kalshi	96% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.22% or above	Kalshi	92% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.14% or above	Kalshi	51% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.2% or above	Kalshi	82% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.16% or above	Kalshi	75% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.1% or above	Kalshi	98% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 23, 2026? 5.12% or above	Kalshi	97% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.75% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.76% or above	Kalshi	90% 4.76% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.77% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.78% or above	Kalshi	97% 4.78% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.8% or above	Kalshi	97% 4.8% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.81% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.82% or above	Kalshi	98% 4.82% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Oct 23, 2026? 4.88% or above	Kalshi	91% 4.88% or above	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 24, 04:20 PM UTC