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Will Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts? Before 2028

No60%
Before 202840%

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24h volume$172
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread8%
ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23, 05:47 AMOct 23, 05:20 PMOct 24, 04:53 AMOct 24, 04:27 PM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Elon Musk depositing SpaceX shares into the Trump Accounts of at least 10 million children is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states Elon Musk depositing SpaceX shares into the Trump Accounts of at least 10 million children occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. This requires that SpaceX shares contributed by Elon Musk have been credited to the Trump Accounts of at least 10,000,000 children, with each of those accounts receiving at least one share. Deposits made in more than one round count together toward the 10,000,000. A Source Agency report that Musk's shares have been deposited into every eligible Trump Account, or into a group of accounts it puts at 10,000,000 or more, is sufficient. Shares contributed by Elon Musk include shares given by any foundation, trust, or other entity he controls, or routed through any charity or intermediary, when the gift is part of his October 19, 2026 pledge or a Source Agency credits it to him. A Trump Account is an account established under Section 530A of the Internal Revenue Code, under any name, including an account opened automatically by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. If SpaceX merges with or is acquired by another company, is renamed, or otherwise reorganizes, shares of the company into which SpaceX shares were converted or exchanged count as SpaceX shares. One share means one share as adjusted for any stock split, reverse split, or stock dividend after Oct 19, 2026. The following do NOT count: A pledge, announcement, commitment, or agreement to deposit shares, or a transfer of shares to the Treasury or another intermediary, before the shares are credited to the children's accounts Cash, or any payment equal to the value of a share, in place of SpaceX shares SpaceX shares contributed by anyone other than Elon Musk, including the gift pledged by Gwynne Shotwell and her husband

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As of Oct 24, 04:59 PM UTC