Brazil presidential runoff: who will win São Paulo?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win São Paulo in the Brazil presidential runoff?

If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of São Paulo in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO. The state of São Paulo is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast in São Paulo state; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result. Votes cast abroad are not part of any state.