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Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?

Yes66%
No34%

Price checked at

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24h volume$249
7d volume$289
30d volume$289
Liquidity$1.2K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23, 12:23 AMOct 23, 01:28 PMOct 24, 02:33 AMOct 24, 03:39 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Sourcehttps://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

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As of Oct 24, 04:20 PM UTC