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Will France enact its 2027 budget in 2026?: Will France enact its 2027 budget before Jan 1, 2027? Yes

No53%
Yes47%

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24h volume$25
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 8, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 22, 11:16 AMOct 23, 05:19 AMOct 23, 11:22 PMOct 24, 05:25 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the 2027 state budget (loi de finances pour 2027) is enacted in France before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. “The 2027 budget” means the loi de finances pour 2027, France’s annual State finance law for 2027. Final adoption by Parliament, including a text deemed adopted under Article 49, paragraph 3, of the Constitution, does NOT count until the President promulgates the law, which follows any review by the Constitutional Council. The market resolves to Yes if the promulgated law bears a date of Dec 31, 2026 or earlier, as shown by its publication in the Journal officiel de la République française. A special law (loi spéciale) that only authorizes the collection of existing taxes and borrowing, or any other interim measure of that kind, does not count. The social security financing law (loi de financement de la sécurité sociale) is a separate law and does not count. The 2027 budget put into force by ordinance under Article 47 of the Constitution counts once the ordinance has been signed and published in the Journal officiel. Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Legislation not requiring executive approval: final passage and completion of required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.

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As of Oct 24, 06:13 PM UTC