PolymarketOpen

Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 21 and December 27, 2026?

No97%
Yes4%

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24h volume$277
7d volume$701
30d volume$701
Liquidity$688
Spread5%
ResolvesDec 28, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 25Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?Polymarket79% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?Polymarket87% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?Polymarket88% NoOpen
Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by January 31, 2027?Polymarket92% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?Polymarket87% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released prior to October 26, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 11 and January 17, 2027?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?Polymarket91% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 18 and January 24, 2027?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 28, 2026 and January 3, 2027?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 25 and January 31, 2027?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 4 and January 10, 2027?Polymarket99% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 25, 06:43 AM UTC