KalshiResolved

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.17% or above

No66%

5.17% or above34%

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24h volume$4.3K

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread—

ResolvesOct 21, 20264 days ago

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.16% on Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 21, 2026, or one week following Oct 21, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.11% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.11% or above	$3.9K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.13% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.13% or above	$3.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.07% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.07% or above	$3.3K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.05% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.05% or above	$3K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.03% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.03% or above	$2.7K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.09% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.09% or above	$2.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.01% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.01% or above	$2.5K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.21% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$2K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.15% or above	Kalshi	63% 5.15% or above	$1.9K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.19% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$1.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.25% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$1.3K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.23% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$1.3K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.27% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$600	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% on Oct 21, 2026? 5.29% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$486	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 25, 09:12 AM UTC