Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 2026
Price checked at
Prices have not been checked within the last hour.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Sourcehttps://ir.tesla.com/press
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla deliver 575000 or more vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 86% No | Open |
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 77% No | Open |
| Will Tesla deliver between 525000 and 550000 vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 79% No | Open |
| Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 74% No | Open |
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 83% No | Open |
| Will Tesla deliver between 550000 and 575000 vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will Tesla deliver less than 400000 vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q4 2026 | Polymarket | 70% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 24, 09:37 PM UTC