Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?

This market will resolve according to the number of the ten US House of Representatives districts listed below that are won by the Democratic Party in the 2026 United States midterm election. The ten districts are Arizona's 6th and 7th Districts, California's 25th and 52nd Districts, New Mexico's 2nd District, and Texas's 15th, 16th, 23rd, 28th, and 34th Districts. All elections for those districts held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. A district counts toward the Democratic total if the winning candidate is the nominee of the Democratic Party or has a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic Party. A win by any other candidate does not count toward the Democratic total. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.