Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round? First-round winner
Price checked at
Prices have not been checked within the last hour.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes cast (suffrages exprimés) in the first round of voting, so that no second round is required. Blank and null ballots are not counted. A second round, if held, has no bearing on this market. The market resolves once the Conseil constitutionnel proclaims the first-round results.
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 24, 07:35 PM UTC