KalshiOpen

Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Benjamin Netanyahu the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?

No65%
Benjamin Netanyahu35%

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24h volume$357
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Spread1%
ResolvesJan 8, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the President of Israel gives Benjamin Netanyahu the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market concerns the first person to whom the President of Israel assigns the task of forming a government (the mandate) under section 7 of Basic Law: The Government, following the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election. The person must be a member of the incoming Knesset. The mandate counts only once the President formally assigns it; party recommendations, reported intentions, and expected assignments do not qualify. Only the first assignment counts. If that person returns the mandate, fails to form a government, or the Knesset rejects the government, a later assignment to anyone else (including at the request of a majority of Knesset members) does not change the result. If the task is assigned to one Knesset member who has agreed to share or rotate the premiership with others, only the member assigned counts. If the first assignment goes to a person not named in this event, or no one is assigned the task before Jan 1, 2027, all markets resolve to No.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi55% Gadi EisenkotOpen
Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Avigdor Lieberman the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Yair Lapid the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Yair Golan the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Naftali Bennett the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that the President of Israel gives Amir Ohana the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi98% NoOpen

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As of Oct 24, 05:05 PM UTC