When will Russian diesel be imported into the U.S.?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States before Dec 1, 2026?

If Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Russian-origin diesel fuel is diesel fuel produced in Russia. Diesel fuel refined in another country from Russian crude oil is not Russian-origin diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is imported into the United States when it is physically delivered to a U.S. port, or otherwise into U.S. territory, for commercial or government use within the United States. An import counts regardless of whether it is made under the Oct 9, 2026 agreement between the United States and Russia, General License 135 or any other authorization. The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: A purchase, contract, loading or voyage of Russian-origin diesel fuel to the United States, before it is actually delivered Diesel fuel carried as a vessel's own fuel Diesel fuel held in bond for re-export or passing through the United States in transit to another country An announcement, agreement or license permitting imports, before diesel fuel is actually delivered