KalshiResolved

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 59,000 MW?

No99%
Above 59,000 MW1%

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ResolvesOct 27, 2026in 2 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 19, 09:56 AMOct 19, 05:35 PMOct 20, 01:13 AMOct 20, 08:52 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 is above 59,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 19, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 59,500 MW?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 60,000 MW?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 58,000 MW?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 57,500 MW?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 58,500 MW?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 56,500 MW?Kalshi99% Above 56,500 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 57,000 MW?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 55,000 MW?Kalshi93% Above 55,000 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 56,000 MW?Kalshi99% Above 56,000 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 55,500 MW?Kalshi99% Above 55,500 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 54,000 MW?Kalshi97% Above 54,000 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 54,500 MW?Kalshi98% Above 54,500 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 53,500 MW?Kalshi99% Above 53,500 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 53,000 MW?Kalshi98% Above 53,000 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 52,500 MW?Kalshi96% Above 52,500 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 52,000 MW?Kalshi98% Above 52,000 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 51,500 MW?Kalshi97% Above 51,500 MWOpen
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 19, 2026: Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 19, 2026 be above 51,000 MW?Kalshi99% Above 51,000 MWOpen

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As of Oct 25, 12:26 PM UTC