Best LLM at the end of the decade? Essential AI
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Essential AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. If the top model's organization is not listed, every market resolves No.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Google | Kalshi | 88% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? xAI | Kalshi | 89% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Meta | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? OpenAI | Kalshi | 91% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Anthropic | Kalshi | 89% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Amazon | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Xiaomi | Kalshi | 95% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Z AI | Kalshi | 95% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Tencent | Kalshi | 95% No | Open |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? Moonshot | Kalshi | 95% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Oct 24, 09:22 PM UTC