Leon wins

No74%
Leon26%

Price checked at

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24h volume$19.6K
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 25, 2026in 11 hours

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 18Oct 19Oct 21Oct 22Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Leon wins the Leon vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Leon vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Gemini and Kalshi use different settlement sources/processes and different posted resolve times, but both resolve the same León-vs-Toluca regulation-time win question. Kalshi also spells out a fair-price rule for certain cancellations/reschedules, while Gemini describes an exchange review process; these do not materially change the question.
  • Kalshithis market

    Leon wins

    If Leon wins the Leon vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Leon vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

  • Toluca vs León: regulation time: Club Leon wins

    This market resolves to Yes if León wins the Liga MX match between León and Toluca scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, based only on regulation time plus stoppage time and excluding extra time and penalties. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event after regulation time plus stoppage time only. Source Agencies, in order, are the Liga MX governing body, ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Soccer_Match_Terms_and_Conditions_d44ee81f-1008-4300-b572-0982b2d9c57f.pdf)

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Toluca winsKalshi51% NoOpen
Tie is the resultKalshi74% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders—
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
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As of Oct 24, 03:12 PM UTC