KalshiDelisted

Which New York City restaurants earn a Michelin star in 2026?: Will Kabawa earn its first Michelin star in 2026?

No53%
Kabawa48%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread45%
ResolvesDec 14, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 17, 09:40 PMOct 18, 05:47 AMOct 18, 01:53 PMOct 18, 10:00 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Kabawa has gained Michelin stars in the 2026 annual Michelin Guide compared with the prior annual edition, then the market resolves to Yes. Eligible restaurants have never held a Michelin star and had zero stars in the prior annual edition; any gain to one or more qualifies. Compare the official 2026 annual Michelin Guide with the 2025 annual edition. Use each restaurant's exact official name at the listed location; relocations are not tracked. Only the official publication for Dec 2026 is used; later revisions, retractions, and mid-year changes do not count. If a restaurant permanently closes before the new Guide is released and is not listed, its market resolves to No. Temporary closures or name changes do not count as a change unless Michelin attributes a different number of stars. Bib Gourmand, unstarred Guide inclusion, and Green Stars do not count as Michelin star gains. Each restaurant market resolves independently; multiple restaurants may resolve Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Michelin Guide. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

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As of Oct 25, 10:40 AM UTC