Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 17, 2026? — 82°F to 83°F

Yes100%
No0%

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ResolvesOct 18, 20267 days ago

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 17, 09:09 PMOct 18, 01:27 AMOct 18, 05:45 AMOct 18, 10:03 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Oct 17 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco Airport, CA on October 17, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service ("NWS") Climatological Report (Daily) for San Francisco Airport, CA. Specifically, this contract will resolve to Yes if the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco Airport on October 17, 2026, as reported in the first published version of the applicable NWS Climatological Report (Daily), satisfies the temperature range specified in this contract. Otherwise, this contract will resolve to No. The Expiration Value shall be the maximum temperature for October 17, 2026 as documented by the NWS. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined by the latest Expiration Date, the contract will resolve to No. Each temperature range listed for this event is mutually exclusive, and only one contract will resolve to Yes. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Weather_Terms_and_Conditions_67323dd4-5775-48d5-bea0-c33d672d1f74.pdf).

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. PolymarketUs and Gemini resolve from the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for San Francisco Airport; Polymarket resolves from NOAA hourly data at KSFO, with Weather Underground as a fallback. The published criteria differ only in resolution source/fallback and settlement timing, not in the underlying event or threshold.
  • Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 17? — 82 to 83

    Will the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) in San Francisco for 2026-10-17 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) be between 82F and 83F? Outcome verified from NWS Climatological Report.

    read Oct 18, 07:16 AM UTC

  • Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on October 17?

    This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

  • Geminithis market

    Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 17, 2026? — 82°F to 83°F

    This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco Airport, CA on October 17, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service ("NWS") Climatological Report (Daily) for San Francisco Airport, CA. Specifically, this contract will resolve to Yes if the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco Airport on October 17, 2026, as reported in the first published version of the applicable NWS Climatological Report (Daily), satisfies the temperature range specified in this contract. Otherwise, this contract will resolve to No. The Expiration Value shall be the maximum temperature for October 17, 2026 as documented by the NWS. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined by the latest Expiration Date, the contract will resolve to No. Each temperature range listed for this event is mutually exclusive, and only one contract will resolve to Yes. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Weather_Terms_and_Conditions_67323dd4-5775-48d5-bea0-c33d672d1f74.pdf).

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As of Oct 24, 08:38 PM UTC