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Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? Google

Google52%
No48%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
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Liquidity—
Spread9%
ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Google has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

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As of Oct 24, 07:38 PM UTC