Will wages beat inflation in 2026?: Will U.S. real average hourly earnings growth (all private employees, YoY, seasonally adjusted) for December 2026 be above 0.0%?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
If the seasonally adjusted 12-month percent change in U.S. real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for December 2026 is strictly above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls from December 2025 to December 2026, as reported in BLS’s Real Earnings release for December 2026. This measure adjusts hourly earnings for inflation using CPI-U. The first published percentage change will be used, including if designated preliminary, at the precision reported by BLS. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. A reported change of 0.0% or less resolves No. The market measures December-to-December growth, not the change in annual averages.
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As of Oct 25, 05:22 AM UTC