KalshiResolved

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.34% or above

No—

5.34% or above—

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

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ResolvesOct 16, 20268 days ago

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.33% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.43% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.44% or above	Kalshi	81% No	$700	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.45% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.46% or above	Kalshi	60% No	$309	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.41% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.42% or above	Kalshi	71% 5.42% or above	$296	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.4% or above	Kalshi	87% 5.4% or above	$101	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.37% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.38% or above	Kalshi	99% 5.38% or above	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.47% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.48% or above	Kalshi	82% No	$85	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.5% or above	Kalshi	91% No	$12	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.61% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.62% or above	Kalshi	97% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.35% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.36% or above	Kalshi	98% 5.36% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.73% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.74% or above	Kalshi	98% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.67% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.68% or above	Kalshi	81% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.7% or above	Kalshi	—	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.71% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.72% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.65% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.66% or above	Kalshi	—	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.63% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.64% or above	Kalshi	—	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.57% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.58% or above	Kalshi	60% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.59% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.6% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.55% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.56% or above	Kalshi	51% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.52% or above	Kalshi	86% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.54% or above	Kalshi	59% 5.54% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% on Oct 16, 2026? 5.32% or above	Kalshi	—	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 24, 06:36 PM UTC