Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 16? — 86 to 87

No100%
Yes0%

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ResolvesOct 17, 20267 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 15, 01:22 PMOct 16, 06:59 AMOct 17, 12:35 AMOct 17, 06:12 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Will the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) in San Francisco for 2026-10-16 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) be between 86F and 87F? Outcome verified from NWS Climatological Report.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. One venue resolves from the NWS Climatological Report for KSFO, while the other uses NOAA hourly data for KSFO with a Weather Underground fallback. They also differ on exact settlement timing and correction handling, but these are not material to the question asked.
  • Polymarket USthis market

    Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 16? — 86 to 87

    Will the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) in San Francisco for 2026-10-16 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) be between 86F and 87F? Outcome verified from NWS Climatological Report.

  • Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on October 16?

    This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 16? — 84 to 85PolymarketUs100% YesOpen
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 16? — 90 or abovePolymarketUs100% NoOpen
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 16? — 88 to 89PolymarketUs100% NoOpen
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 16? — 82 to 83PolymarketUs100% NoOpen
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 16? — 81 or belowPolymarketUs100% NoOpen

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As of Oct 24, 06:43 PM UTC