Highest temperature in Miami on October 14? — 90 to 91

No100%
Yes0%

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ResolvesOct 15, 202610 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 13, 01:09 PMOct 14, 04:55 AMOct 14, 08:40 PMOct 15, 12:26 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Will the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport (KMIA) in Miami for 2026-10-14 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) be between 90F and 91F? Outcome verified from NWS Climatological Report.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. The venues differ on settlement mechanics and source wording, but they measure the same underlying fact: the highest temperature in Miami/KMIA on 2026-10-14 and whether it lands in the 90–91°F range. Those resolution differences are not material to comparability.
  • Polymarket USthis market

    Highest temperature in Miami on October 14? — 90 to 91

    Will the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport (KMIA) in Miami for 2026-10-14 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) be between 90F and 91F? Outcome verified from NWS Climatological Report.

    read Oct 15, 05:19 AM UTC

  • Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 14?

    This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

  • Highest temperature in Miami on October 14, 2026? — 90°F to 91°F

    This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded at Miami, FL on October 14, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service ("NWS") Climatological Report (Daily) for Miami, FL. Specifically, this contract will resolve to Yes if the highest temperature recorded at Miami on October 14, 2026, as reported in the first published version of the applicable NWS Climatological Report (Daily), satisfies the temperature range specified in this contract. Otherwise, this contract will resolve to No. The Expiration Value shall be the maximum temperature for October 14, 2026 as documented by the NWS. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined by the latest Expiration Date, the contract will resolve to No. Each temperature range listed for this event is mutually exclusive, and only one contract will resolve to Yes. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Weather_Terms_and_Conditions_67323dd4-5775-48d5-bea0-c33d672d1f74.pdf).

    read Oct 14, 02:10 PM UTC

  • Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 14?

    This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Market will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

    read Oct 14, 03:32 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Highest temperature in Miami on October 14? — 84 to 85PolymarketUs100% NoOpen
Highest temperature in Miami on October 14? — 86 to 87PolymarketUs100% NoOpen
Highest temperature in Miami on October 14? — 88 to 89PolymarketUs100% YesOpen
Highest temperature in Miami on October 14? — 83 or belowPolymarketUs100% NoOpen
Highest temperature in Miami on October 14? — 92 or abovePolymarketUs100% NoOpen

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As of Oct 25, 11:23 AM UTC