KalshiOpen

Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026: Will Meta have a higher Arena Score than OpenAI at the end of 2026?

Meta90%

No10%

Price checked at Oct 24, 10:46 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread6%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Meta's top model has a higher Arena Score than OpenAI's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Each company's top model is its highest-ranked model in the Overall category of the leaderboard, with style control removed (Adjustments: None). A model belongs to the company the leaderboard lists as its organization. Preliminary models count. If the two top models show the same Arena Score, the one ranked higher on the leaderboard wins.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026: Will OpenAI have a higher Arena Score than Meta at the end of 2026?	Kalshi	89% No	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 9 hours ago

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As of Oct 24, 10:48 PM UTC