Duke vs Virginia: spread: Duke (-4.5)

Virginia90%
Duke11%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$20.9K
Spread3%
ResolvesOct 23, 20264 hours ago

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Duke" if Duke win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Virginia". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Sourcehttps://www.ncaa.com/

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. They differ only in resolution details: Gemini cites multiple source agencies and a market review process, Polymarket uses NCAA.com with 50-50 on cancellation, and Kalshi uses official final result with a fair-price fallback if not started within 48 hours. The published criteria otherwise ask the same Duke -4.5 spread question.
  • Duke vs Virginia: spread: Duke (-4.5)

    This market resolves to Yes if the score differential recorded in favor of Duke in the entire college football game between Duke and Virginia scheduled for 2026-10-23 at 6:00 p.m. CT is above 4.5. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the score differential (Duke's score minus Virginia's score) for the specified game. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (NCAAF), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Terms_and_Conditions_NCAA_CFB_Spread_Class_941e2dcb-07e0-4ee4-9d21-bdd1a7612f13.pdf).

    read Oct 23, 12:49 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Duke vs Virginia: spread: Duke (-4.5)

    In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Duke" if Duke win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Virginia". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

  • Duke wins by over 4.5 points

    If Duke wins by more than 4.5 points in the Duke vs Virginia college football game originally scheduled for Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Duke vs Virginia: Duke winsPolymarket66% VirginiaOpen
Duke vs Virginia: total O/U 47.5Polymarket96% UnderOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-2.5)Polymarket62% VirginiaOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-14.5)Polymarket96% DukeOpen
Duke vs Virginia: total O/U 45.5Polymarket93% UnderOpen
Duke vs Virginia: total O/U 43.5Polymarket90% UnderOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-3.5)Polymarket68% DukeOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Duke (-5.5)Polymarket92% VirginiaOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Duke (-6.5)Polymarket93% VirginiaOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-10.5)Polymarket95% DukeOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-13.5)Polymarket95% DukeOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-0.5)Polymarket80% VirginiaOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-1.5)Polymarket64% VirginiaOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Duke (-10.5)Polymarket96% VirginiaOpen
Duke Team Total: O/U 20.5Polymarket87% UnderOpen
Duke 1H Team Total: O/U 15.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Duke vs Virginia: spread: Virginia (-20.5)Polymarket99% DukeOpen
Duke vs Virginia: 2nd half total O/U 33.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Duke 1H Team Total: O/U 13.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Duke vs Virginia: total O/U 65.5Polymarket52% OverOpen
Duke vs Virginia: total O/U 71.5Polymarket51% OverOpen
Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
1H Spread: Virginia (-3.5)Polymarket67% DukeOpen
2Q Spread: Duke (-3.5)Polymarket81% VirginiaOpen
3Q Spread: Duke (-1.5)Polymarket50% VirginiaOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 02:36 AM UTC