Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 14?

No100%
Yes0%

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ResolvesOct 14, 202610 days ago

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Sourcehttps://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Gemini and PolymarketUs use the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for KLAX; Polymarket uses NOAA hourly data for KLAX with a Weather Underground fallback. Their published criteria differ only in resolution source and settlement mechanics, not in the event, threshold, or date.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 14?

    This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

  • Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 14? — 76 to 77

    Will the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) in Los Angeles for 2026-10-14 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) be between 76F and 77F? Outcome verified from NWS Climatological Report.

    read Oct 15, 05:39 AM UTC

  • Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 14, 2026? — 76°F to 77°F

    This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Intl Airport CA, CA on October 14, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service ("NWS") Climatological Report (Daily) for Los Angeles Intl Airport CA, CA. Specifically, this contract will resolve to Yes if the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Intl Airport CA on October 14, 2026, as reported in the first published version of the applicable NWS Climatological Report (Daily), satisfies the temperature range specified in this contract. Otherwise, this contract will resolve to No. The Expiration Value shall be the maximum temperature for October 14, 2026 as documented by the NWS. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined by the latest Expiration Date, the contract will resolve to No. Each temperature range listed for this event is mutually exclusive, and only one contract will resolve to Yes. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Weather_Terms_and_Conditions_67323dd4-5775-48d5-bea0-c33d672d1f74.pdf).

    read Oct 14, 02:46 PM UTC

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As of Oct 24, 09:27 PM UTC