MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Lewis Hamilton

No77%
Yes23%

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24h volume$426
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread10%
ResolvesNov 8, 2026in 15 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 21Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if Lewis Hamilton wins the MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix scheduled for October 25, 2026 (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the listed driver is replaced by a reserve or substitute driver between market creation and race start, the market will remain open and reference the reserve or substitute driver. If the race is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from FIA.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. One venue includes the sponsor name “MSC Cruises” in the race title, while the other does not. They otherwise target the same winner of the same 2026 United States Grand Prix; the published settlement criteria differ only in source hierarchy and timing/cancellation handling.
  • Polymarket USthis market

    MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Lewis Hamilton

    This market will settle to Yes if Lewis Hamilton wins the MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix scheduled for October 25, 2026 (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the listed driver is replaced by a reserve or substitute driver between market creation and race start, the market will remain open and reference the reserve or substitute driver. If the race is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from FIA.

    read Oct 24, 12:18 PM UTC

  • United States Grand Prix Winner: Lewis Hamilton

    This market resolves to Yes if Lewis Hamilton is officially declared the winner of the Formula 1 Grand Prix originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (FIA), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a driver forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)

    read Oct 24, 01:51 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Max VerstappenPolymarketUs54% NoOpen
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Kimi AntonelliPolymarketUs82% NoOpen
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Charles LeclercPolymarketUs82% NoOpen
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Lando NorrisPolymarketUs93% NoOpen
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: George RussellPolymarketUs90% NoOpen
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Oscar PiastriPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Isack HadjarPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Carlos SainzPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Sergio PerezPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Lance StrollPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Arvid LindbladPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Gabriel BortoletoPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Pierre GaslyPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Liam LawsonPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Nico HulkenbergPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Oliver BearmanPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Alexander AlbonPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Franco ColapintoPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Fernando AlonsoPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Esteban OconPolymarketUs—Open
MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Valtteri BottasPolymarketUs—Open

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As of Oct 24, 08:59 PM UTC