Will October 16 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/12 - 10/18)?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
If Oct 16, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
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As of Oct 25, 03:04 AM UTC