Polymarket USOpen

How Many US Homes Built in 2026? — 1.30M+

No77%
Yes24%

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24h volume$25
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesFeb 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed in the United States for 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in the New Residential Construction release for December 2026, is greater than or equal to 1,300,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau. This market settles based on the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed (not seasonally adjusted), published in the U.S. Census Bureau's New Residential Construction release, currently in Table 5b, viewable at https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html. Each year's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not publish the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed for 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed for the most recent year prior to 2026 for which it has been published. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20HUCMC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
How Many US Homes Built in 2026? — 1.35M+PolymarketUs94% NoOpen
How Many US Homes Built in 2026? — 1.20M+PolymarketUs59% NoOpen
How Many US Homes Built in 2026? — 1.40M+PolymarketUs97% NoOpen
How Many US Homes Built in 2026? — 1.25M+PolymarketUs56% YesOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 11:51 PM UTC