Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026?

This market will settle to Yes if the 12-month percent change in real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted, from December 2025 to December 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Real Earnings release for December 2026, is greater than 0.0 percent. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market settles based on the Real Earnings release published monthly alongside the Consumer Price Index, viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish the 12-month percent change in real average hourly earnings for December 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the 12-month percent change in real average hourly earnings for the most recent month prior to December 2026 for which it has been published. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20RAHEC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf