Polymarket USOpen

US Tariff Revenue in FY27? — $150B

Yes74%
No27%

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24h volume$747
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 28, 2027next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 13Oct 16Oct 19Oct 21Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if the fiscal-year-to-date total of net customs duties receipts reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury in the Monthly Treasury Statement for September 2027 is greater than or equal to $150,000,000,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. This market settles based on the fiscal-year-to-date net receipts for Customs Duties reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement, currently in Table 4, viewable at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the U.S. Department of the Treasury does not publish the fiscal-year-to-date total of net customs duties receipts for September 2027 by December 29, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the fiscal-year-to-date total of net customs duties receipts for the most recent month prior to September 2027 for which it has been published. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20CUSDC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
US Tariff Revenue in FY27? — $200BPolymarketUs53% NoOpen
US Tariff Revenue in FY27? — $250BPolymarketUs65% YesOpen
US Tariff Revenue in FY27? — $300BPolymarketUs59% YesOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 05:56 PM UTC