How Low Will Unemployment Get by Dec. 31? — 3.8%

This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for any month from October 2026 through December 2026 is less than or equal to 3.8%. Outcome sourced from BLS. This market settles based on the Employment Situation Report releases published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish complete data for the specified period by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the data published up to that point. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20UNRTC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf